Warm Winter

With the winter of 2023-24 on track to be one of the warmest, if not the warmest winter ever recorded in Minnesota, what’s a gardener to do? The short, frustrating answer is: Not much.

Yes, you can add more mulch to plants that seem to be greening up too fast. This will protect them during potential cold snaps in February, March or April. You can also take comfort in the knowledge that soil and air temperatures are not the only factors driving when plants break dormancy in spring. The length of the day is what tells many plants that it is spring, according to the University of Minnesota Extension service. This is particularly important for deciduous trees and shrubs.

Signs of Spring?

Signs of the extra warm winter are everywhere. Bulbs pushing up foliage. Tree buds are getting plumper. Some rhododendrons are popping a bloom and opportunistic weeds, such as garlic mustard, are spreading. Most of these can just be admired and ignored unless you want to put down that extra mulch or pull those garlic mustard plants.

Winter Sowing

If you are a winter sower, Northern Gardener contributor and winter sowing pro Michelle Mero Riedel recommends moving your mini greenhouses into the shade during these warm stretches to prevent too-early germination. You could also put winter-sowing containers on the north side of the house to delay germination. If seeds do germinate in the containers, you will need to water them. If you have not set out containers yet, Michelle recommends holding off until the weather turns cooler or even waiting until March.

Tapping Maples

Several gardeners we know are tapping their maple trees to make syrup already. Northern Gardener contributor Michelle Bruhn began tapping her maple trees by Feb. 1, because the temperatures had been in that perfect maple-tapping zone. She’s hopeful there will be a longer than average maple season, but says that tapping this early is new territory. Most of the time, trees are tapped in March.

Pruning

Perhaps the biggest concern for gardeners with a warm winter is that fruit trees will bloom and then have their blossoms nipped in a cold spell. This happened in 2012. While gardeners can’t control that, the warm winter and lack of snow present the perfect opportunity to prune fruit trees, hydrangeas and other plants that are best pruned in the dormant season.

Seed Starting

Do you like pansies in spring? Why not start some seeds now indoors and see how early you can get them out on your porch. One of our favorite Instagrammers tipped us off to this idea. You may be able to put them out in early April!

What’s Going on with the Weather?

Two climate phenomena are colliding in this warm winter. The immediate issue is a strong El Nino weather pattern. Caused by warmer than normal air coming off the surface of the Pacific Ocean, El Nino affects weather patterns across the North American continent. It usually produces warmer and drier winters in the North and colder, wetter and stormier winters in the South. Most of Minnesota’s 10 warmest winters occurred during El Nino incidents, including the 1997-98 winter which rivals 1877-78 for the warmest.

El Nino is taking place on top of ongoing climate change. According to the state Department of Natural Resources, “In Minnesota, a typical winter day is now several degrees warmer than in the middle of the 20th century, and average low temperatures during January, our coldest month, have increased by over 10 degrees F in some areas.” These higher lows have been most noticeable in northern parts of the state.

Will this winter continue its warm trend? Most El Ninos last up to nine months—but winter can return. The last El Nino in Minnesota was 2018-19. This was a weak El Nino winter and after a warm start to the season, weather turned nasty producing a bomb cyclone blizzard in late February and 8-plus inches of snow on April 10. These maps show every El Nino winter since 1950. While the most recent El Ninos have been warm in the North, some in the past have produced cold winters. 

How this will affect late winter and spring is uncertain. The long-range forecast calls for a return to more seasonable temperatures in the second half of February.

Observe the Garden

This warm winter presents a chance to see how resilient your garden is. Which plants won’t survive and which seem to keep on going no matter what the weather? Are there warmer zone plants you want to add or is now the time to plant more native shrubs and perennials? There’s a lot of “winter” ahead to observe and ponder.

Mary Lahr Schier is a long-time Minnesota garden writer. Follow her on Instagram at @mynortherngarden_mary.